One Vote Can Make a Difference

The odds that one vote can make a difference in an election are almost nil, worse than the odds of winning Powerball. But that doesnt mean its impossible that one vote can make a difference. Its actually happened. There have been cases in which one vote decided the election. Odds That One Vote Can Make a Difference Economists Casey B. Mulligan and Charles G. Hunter found in a 2001 study that only one of every 100,000 votes cast in federal elections, and one of every 15,000 votes cast in state legislative elections, â€Å"mattered in the sense that they were cast for a candidate that officially tied or won by one vote.† Their study of 16,577 national elections from 1898 through 1992 found that only one had been decided by a single vote. It was the 1910 election in New York’s 36th Congressional District, won by a Democrat who claimed 20,685 votes to the Republican candidate’s 20,684. Of those elections, the median margin of victory was 22 percentage points and 18,021 actual votes. Mulligan and Hunter also analyzed 40,036 state legislative elections from 1968 through 1989 and found only seven that had been decided by a single vote. Of those elections, the median margin of victory was 25 percentage points and 3,257 actual votes. In other words, the chance that your vote will be the decisive or pivotal one in a national election is almost zilch. The same goes for state legislative elections. Chances That One Vote Can Make a Difference in a Presidential Race   Researchers Andrew Gelman, Gary King, and John Boscardin estimated the chances that a single vote would decide a U.S. presidential election to be 1 in 10 million at best and less than 1 in 100 million at worst. Their work, titled Estimating the Probability of Events That Have Never Occurred: When Is Your Vote Decisive? appeared in 1998 in the Journal of the American Statistical Association.  Ã¢â‚¬Å"Given the size of the electorate, an election where one vote is decisive (equivalent to a tie in your state and in the electoral college) will almost certainly never occur,† Gelman, King and Boscardin wrote. Still, the odds of your one vote deciding a presidential election are still better than your odds of matching all six numbers of Powerball, which are smaller than 1 in 175 million. What Really Happens in Close Elections So what happens if an election really is decided by a single vote, or is at least pretty close? It’s taken out of the electorate’s hands. Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt, who wrote Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything, pointed out in a 2005 column in The New York Times that extremely close elections are often settled not at the ballot box but in courtrooms. Consider President George W. Bush’s narrow victory in 2000 over Democrat Al Gore, which ended up being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. â€Å"It is true that the outcome of that election came down to a handful of voters; but their names were Kennedy, OConnor, Rehnquist, Scalia, and Thomas. And it was only the votes they cast while wearing their robes that mattered, not the ones they may have cast in their home precincts,† Dubner and Levitt wrote. When One Vote Really Did Make a Difference The races won by a single vote, in addition to the new 1910 Congressional election in New York, according to Mulligan and Hunter, were: A 1978 race for Rhode Island state Senate was tied at 4,110 votes and decided by a second runoff election. So was a 1980 race for New Mexico state House, at 2,327 votes for each candidate.A 1982 state House election in Maine in which the victor won 1,387 votes to the loser’s 1,386 votes.A 1982 state Senate race in Massachusetts in which the victor won 5,352 votes to the loser’s 5,351; a subsequent recount late found a wider margin.A 1980 state House race in Utah in which the victor won 1,931 votes to the loser’s 1,930 votes.A 1978 state Senate race in North Dakota in which the victor won 2,459 votes to the loser’s 2,458 votes; a subsequent recount found the margin to be six votes.A 1970 state House race in Rhode Island in which the victor won 1,760 votes to the loser’s 1,759.A 1970 state House race in Missouri in which the victor won 4,819 votes to the loser’s 4,818 votes.And a 1968 state House race in Wisconsin in which the victor won 6,522 votes to the loser’s 6,521 votes; a subsequent recount found the margin to be two votes, not one.

Behaviorism A Psychological Approach - 2941 Words

Behaviorism Behaviorism is a psychological approach that combines the elements of theory, philosophy and methodology. Behaviorism refers to that school of psychology that was founded by Watson. It was basically based on the assumption or belief that it is possible to change, train and measure behaviors (Drisoll, 2000). Behaviorism is a psychological school of thought that was established when Watson published his classic paper Psychology as the Behaviorist Views It (1913). The terms behaviorism is, therefore, that psychological perspective whose its explanations about learning are actually based on the relationship that exists between the events in the environment and behaviors that can be observed rather than on internal processes. It came up in the early 20th century basically as a reaction to the mentalistic psychology, which often was incapable of making predictions that rigorous experimental methods could be a test (Watson, 2008). Behaviorism, also behavioral psychology, is that learning theory based upon the idea and belief that any given or all behaviors and conducts are obtained through conditioning. Conditioning actually occurs through the interaction with the environment. They (behaviorists) assume that our responses shape our behaviors to the environmental stimuli (Drisoll, 2000). This school of thought argues that any person’s conduct can actually be studied in a manner that is observable and systematic without considering their internal mental states. ItShow MoreRelatedPsychological Approaches : Behaviorism, Cognitive And Humanistic Approach1659 Words   |  7 PagesAnalysis of three psychological approaches; behaviourism, cognitive and humanistic. Three psychological approaches will be discussed in this essay, it will analyse the strengths and limitations of each the humanistic, cognitive and the humanistic approach. 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The Marginal Propensity to Consume

Questions: a. Describe what is meant by the marginal propensity to consume (mpc) and give its formula. b. Assume that GDP rises from $550bn to $650bn. Assume that this results in the consumption of goods and services rising from $340bn to $400bn. What is the mpc? c. Assuming that the domestic mpc remains constant, what will the level of consumption be if GDP rises to $700bn? d. If Australian consumption of goods and services is $400bn, investment is $120bn, government expenditure is $150bn, exports of goods and services are $140bn and imports of goods and services are $145bn, what is the level of aggregate expenditure (E)? e. Given your answer to (d), and assuming that GDP is currently $650bn, what will happen to GDP? Answers: (a). The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) refers as division of a total increment in pay that a customer spends on the utilization of products and in addition services, in preference to save it. Moreover, MPC plays a significant role in order to calculate the percentage of extra income that is used on consumption. MPC is an important component of Keynesian macroeconomic theory (Bilbiie Straub, 2006). Along with this, MPC is ascertained separating the adjustment in consumption by the change in income. In addition, the formula is as below: MPC = C / Y In this formula, C indicates the change in consumption, whereas Y points toward change in income (Gnos, Rochon, 2008). Hence, the formula is helpful to calculate MPC in an accurate and an appropriate manner. (b). MPC represents the changes in income because of changes in consumption. In the given question, GDP ascends from $550bn to $650bn. Moreover, the outcomes in the consumption of goods and services are ascending from $340bn to $400bn. The MPC is calculated as below: MPC = Change in Consumption / Change in GDP Change in Consumption = $400bn - $340bn = $60bn Change in GDP = $650bn - $550bn = $100bn MPC = $60bn/$100bn = .6 As a result; by considering all the given data the MPC is .6. (c). If the domestic MPC remains constant .6 and the GDP rise to $700bn then the level of consumption would be: = $700bn/ (1-.6) = $700bn/ (.4) = 1750 (d).Consumption of goods and services = $400bn Investment = $120bn Government expenditure = $150bn Exports of goods and services = $140bn Imports of goods and services = $145bn The level of aggregate expenditure AE = C + I + G + NX (Hubbard, Garnett, Lewis, 2012). = 400 + 120 + 150 + (140-145) = 665 At this point; C = Consumption: The household consumption over a specific time period. I = Investment: The amount of expenditure towards the capital goods. G = Government Expenditure: The amount of spending by governments (federal, state, and local governments). Government expenditure can take in infrastructure or else transfers that may increase the total expenditure in the economy. NX = Net exports: (Total exports- total imports). (e). Given answer to (d), and assuming that GDP is currently $650bn, and then the GDP will rise instead of fall or stay the same. The main reason behind it is that, according to the expenditure approach, aggregate expenditure is considered as a major part of GDP calculation. For that reason, if the aggregate expenditure will increase then it will increase the GDP in an automatic manner (Hubbard, Garnett, Lewis, O'Brien, 2014). Moreover, expenditure method is the most common method that is used in order to calculate GDP in an accurate manner. The formula for its calculation is given as below: GDP = C + G + I + NX On the basis of the above formula, it can be said that, the expenditure method involves aggregate expenditure to calculate the GDP. In this way, in this situation the GDP will rise. 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